Tomorrow night at 8 pm BST, Arsenal host Bayern Munich at the Emirates Stadium in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League (UCL) quarterfinals. Being an Arsenal fan, I would be lying if I said I wasn’t slightly nervous at the prospect of confronting the Bundesliga giants twice in two weeks. Both teams have become well acquainted over the years, clashing various times in the competition with Arsenal suffering some embarrassing defeats in the process.
The last time both teams met were in the 2016/17 UCL round of 16 where the Gunners were absolutely demolished at home and away resulting in a 10–2 win on aggregate for the German side. Historically against Arsenal, Bayern have 7 wins, 2 draws and just 3 losses in a total of twelve meetings. Impressively, Bayern (27) have scored twice as many goals as Arsenal (13) during these encounters. Hence, I can understand why majority of football fans have been quick to disregard Arsenal’s potential entry into this year’s semi-finals. Despite the overwhelmingly one-sided nature of this fixture, I can see the Gunners overcoming the odds — here’s why:
Thomas Tuchel’s Bayern Munich is not the near-perfect Bavarian side we have been accustomed to over the years. The current team has been inconsistent this season especially in the Bundesliga. They are currently in second place with a 16-point difference between league leaders Bayer Leverkusen. Earlier in the season, Bayern were also knocked out in the second round of the DFB Pokal cup by third division side FC Saarbrucken.
As you can see, Bayern’s away record has been below their usual standards this season — losing thrice and drawing twice. They have also lost twice at home and drawn once. In the UCL group stage, Bayern won six games, drew one and lost against Lazio away from home.
Bayern Munich’s Leaky Defence
Despite Bayern scoring a staggering 80 goals so far this season in the Bundesliga, their defence have conceded 36 goals. To give you a bit of context, Arsenal have scored 75 goals and only conceded 24 so far against arguably tougher oppositions in the English Premier League (EPL). Der FCB typically lines up in a 4–2–3–1 formation with Harry Kane leading the forward line.
Typically in possession, Bayern play a high defensive line which at times sit just behind the halfway line. This is a tactic followed by many of Europe’s top teams including Manchester City, Liverpool and of course, Arsenal. Whilst this high defensive line is used to restrain the opposing team within their own half, whenever Bayern are caught in possession, teams have used incisive passes to carve open their defence and take advantage of the acres of space left between the defence and goalkeeper.
As good as Bayern are in possession, this season they have been caught in possession on numerous occasions especially when playing out from the back resulting in goal scoring opportunities. In the following clip, when opponents utilise a high press, Bayern struggle to play their way out and often end up conceding possession in very dangerous areas. From some of these goals, you can notice even when Bayern lose the ball inside the opposition’s half, they can concede a goal because they play such a high line that all it takes is one swift counter attack to waltz right through their disorganised defence.
Arsenal’s Potential Tactics and Lineup
The Emirates Stadium has been a fortress for Arsenal this season. The Gunners have lost just once at home in the EPL. Admirably in the UCL they have not lost or drawn a game at home whilst scoring 13 and conceding none. Based on these performances and the evident lapses in Bayern’s defence, Arsenal should look to start the game with intensity and purpose.
I believe Arteta will employ his typical 4–3–3 formation, however selecting the right players will be slightly difficult as the Spaniard has an abundance of quality to choose from having recovered various players from injuries. I would go with the following starting eleven:
David Raya, Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Jorginho, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka.
I believe Arsenal will employ their signature high press usually led by captain Ødegaard to box Bayern inside their own half. I think the high press will cause a lot of discomfort for the Bayern defence which will lead to critical errors when they try to play out from the back. I can see Goretzka or Muller dropping deep to receive the ball from Ulreich or their central defenders, however I’m sure Rice will leave his central midfield position to shadow Goretzka and try to nick the ball off him outside the penalty box.
Similarly, when Muller drops deep Martinelli or Jesus will leave their positions to put pressure on the German and prevent him from finding a way out. Arsenal have been exceptional with their high press this season which have caused teams to make errors and give away possession in costly territories.
Seeing as Bayern’s high defensive line can be exposed, I believe the pace of Martinelli, Saka and Jesus will be key in launching counter attacks.
When Bayern are in possession trying to plot an attack, Goretzka will sit deep to provide cover for his two central defenders while Kimmich and Davies will push up from their wing-back positions to provide width in the attack. Hence, there will be gaps which are perfect for Martinelli and Saka to run into. In this hypothetical, if Jorginho wins the ball off Laimer he can lay it off to Ødegaard and Jesus will make a run through the middle, while Martinelli will make a run into the space left by Kimmich and Saka will do the same on the other side.
If needed, Rice will most likely make a supporting run to provide an extra option. Now while Ødegaard is running at the defence, he has plenty of options to pass to on either side and a player of his quality will be able to pick the right pass. When Bayern are in possession, Arsenal should stay compact and wait for the opportunity to intercept a pass or lunge in with a tackle and as soon as they catch the Bavarians in possession they can launch a swift counter attack which can easily lead to a goal scoring opportunity.
Arsenal are currently unbeaten in their last 11 PL games (10 wins, 1 draw) and have conceded just 4 goals. Based on current form the Gunners are definitely the favourites heading into this first leg at the Emirates. On the opposite spectrum, Bayern enter the game after suffering back-to-back defeats in the Bundesliga. Both teams have been goal-scoring machines this season so this might just turn out to be an entertaining high-scoring clash if we are treated to a free-flowing game. It will be an extremely intense second leg at the Allianz Arena in Munich so the pressure is on the Gunners to overcome their poor historic record and arrive in Germany with a first leg advantage.
